Using ARMA/ARIMA and Bass Diffusion Model for Electronic products sales forecasting

Abstract

Companies are expanding their operations worldwide since the past few decades. Profit growth coupled with an effective strategy has become the primary need of global companies. Research in this area has given rise to optimization of the supply chain for higher profitability. Considering the overall strategy the company needs to plan production well in advance. Sales Forecasting is a process to predict demand at different stages. The purpose is to estimate the number of electronic products sales for prediction of sales and pre-investment of business industries. This can be done through sales forecasting techniques like ARMA/ARIMA, Bass diffusion. These techniques can be applied on historical data in order to forecast about sales of electronic product. Sales forecasting is an integral part of any business management. Sales forecasting plays an important role in intelligent business decisions making process. From last two decades a number of different high technology products are available in market and capturing a large market share. The main objective is to find the sales trend of few consumer durable electronic products using bass diffusion model. The secondary objective is to analyze the change in technologies and performance of competitive providers. As a case study we have considered mobile handsets from five providers, television set from four different technologies, desktop computers, portables and computer peripheral devices.