FORECASTING TECHNOLOGY LIFE CYCLE BASED ON DIFFUSION THEORY

Abstract

There is a need of technology forecasting because many technologies are developing continuously and day by day. There are many changes occurring in technology, the reason for finding why these changes are happening and what will be the future trends in technology is needed. So, to get the answers of all these questions, forecasting technology life cycle is required. This study first identified the major research areas in cloud computing through bibliometric analysis. Cloud computing research areas have been divided into two categories namely, technical and business aspects. Further, adoption of cloud computing has been identified as a research gap and this has been studied from the root of cloud computing technology i.e. from the historical perspective and development. This research study further addressed the adoption, advantages and limitations of cloud computing in different sectors as the need of cloud computing is different for different sectors. In this report, the focus is on the analysis of cloud computing based on the diffusion theory and various innovation characteristics. Through models such as moving average, double exponential smoothing as well as regression, this research has forecasted the technology trends.